Category Archives: Statistics

Wimpy Hurricane Season a Surprise — And a Puzzle for Statisticians

It was a hurricane season almost without hurricanes. There were just two, Humberto and Ingrid, and both were relatively wimpy, Category 1 storms. That made the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which ended Saturday, the least active in more than 30 years — for reasons that remain puzzling. Continue reading

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“Mathematics and Climate” — A New Text

Today, allow me to indulge in a bit of self-promotion on the occasion of the publication by the Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) of a new textbook, “Mathematics and Climate,” co-authored by your friendly MPE Blogmaster, Hans Kaper, and my colleague, Hans Engler, at Georgetown University. Continue reading

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SAMSI Workshop – Dynamics of Seismicity, Earthquake Clustering and Patterns in Fault Networks

Despite considerable research, earthquake dynamics remains one of the major challenges in geophysics. A recent workshop on Dynamics of Seismicity, Earthquake Clustering and Patterns in Fault Networks at SAMSI in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, was organized to achieve progress in this field. Continue reading

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Understanding Earth’s Past Climate: How the Mathematical Sciences Can Help to Inform the Debate on Climate Change

What is the relationship between temperature measurements and greenhouse gas emissions, and what do these relationships tell us about the sensitivity of climate to increased greenhouse gas concentrations? How can historical temperature measurements inform this understanding? Continue reading

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Statistics of Extreme Events

The floods that occurred earlier this month in Colorado remind us once again of the increasing talk about extreme weather events. Continue reading

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Climate Science without Climate Models

In June 2012, more than 3,000 daily maximum temperature records were broken or tied in the United States, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Meteorologists commented at that time that this number was very unusual. By comparison, in June 2013, only about 1,200 such records were broken or tied. Was that number “normal”? Continue reading

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Extreme Events

Weather extremes capture the public’s attention and are often used as arguments in the debate about climate change. The concern that extreme events may be changing in frequency and intensity as a result of human influences on climate is real, but the notion of extreme events depends to a large degree on the system under consideration, including its vulnerability, resiliency, and capacity for adaptation and mitigation. Continue reading

Posted in Extreme Events, Probability, Statistics, Weather | 1 Comment

Systemic Risk in Complex Systems

Ten years ago today (8/14/2003), the northeastern U.S. suffered the worst blackout in U.S. history, when about 15 million people lost power. The massive loss of power was attributed to a small event that cascaded through the complex power distribution system. Continue reading

Posted in Complex Systems, Mathematics, Networks, Risk Analysis, Statistics | Leave a comment

Talking Across Fields

The AIM workshop on exponential random network models was an experiment, bringing together people in applied social sciences, biologists, statisticians, and mathematicians who are interested in the emerging field of graph limit theory. Continue reading

Posted in Data Assimilation, Epidemiology, Mathematics, Social Systems, Statistics | Leave a comment

DIMACS/CCICADA Collaboration on REU and Other Sustainability Projects

The Center for Discrete Mathematics and Theoretical Computer Science (DIMACS) and the Command Control Interoperability Center for Advanced Data Analysis (CCICADA), both based at Rutgers University, have collaborated on some recent activities to enhance the summer experience for several undergraduate students participating in the DIMACS/CCICADA Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU) program. DIMACS and CCICADA recently co-hosted a workshop on Science and Technology Innovations in Hurricane Sandy Research. Continue reading

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Königsberg’s bridges, Holland’s dikes, and Wall Street’s downfall

As a large crowd gathered at CRM on Friday evening, May 10, to hear Paul Embrechts, Professor of Mathematics at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich (ETHZ), everyone was wondering how he would connect “Königsberg’s bridges, Holland’s dikes, and Wall Street’s downfall.” Continue reading

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Blog on Math Blogs

Today’s blog is a short blog about a “Blog on Math Blogs.” Continue reading

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BIRS Workshop — “Non-Gaussian Multivariate Statistical Models and their Applications”

A diverse group of 42 scholars from 15 countries converged this week at BIRS for a workshop on “Non-Gaussian Multivariate Statistical Models and their Applications.” Continue reading

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SAMSI Undergraduate Workshop — Predicting the 2013 Hurricane Season Using Real Data

During the week of May 13, 2013, thirty-four students from around the United States attended the Statistical and Mathematical Sciences Institute (SAMSI) Undergraduate Modeling Workshop. Continue reading

Posted in Natural Disasters, Statistics, Weather, Workshop Report | Leave a comment

Report: The Mathematical Sciences in 2025

The full report on The Mathematical Sciences in 2025 from the National Academies Press is now available for download. Continue reading

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Extreme Weather Event

It was unusually warm and windy for early April. We piled into the toasty lecture hall with drinks and sandwich wraps in hand. Dr. Smith, with his shock of white hair and the thin frame of a marathon runner, shed his sport jacket as he recounted the 2003 European heat wave. Continue reading

Posted in Climate, General, Statistics, Weather | Leave a comment